Wild Card Weekend Preview
Preseason predictions vs. reality, Final Power Rankings, Wild Card Predictions
We made it through the season and if you are a fan of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, you are going to be very interested in what happens next. Will the powerhouse teams do what they usually do? Will my team upset our rival? These are just a few of the questions fans are asking this weekend.
JLD has finished it’s first full season of (public) predictions and I’m pretty satisfied thus far, though I’ll admit it was a rough year for the predictions. The goal was to reach 60-70% correctness in predictions for week to week games and 50% correct on preseason records.
Week to Week Predictions
JLD hit a nice stride in the last few weeks, having 80% and 75% correct picks in the final two weeks. That pushed the record to 158-113 or 58% correct picks in the week to week. Comparing to ESPN power rankings, JLD predictions were 1 better than them. We still have a few weeks of predictions to pad the scores, but we’ll see what happens.
Preseason Predictions
The goal has been to be 50% correct and above you can see how it played out. Here’s how I score myself. In order to count as “correct”, JLD has to be 85% correct with the final team record. This equates to being no more than 2 games off from what we predicted. So, JLD’s final report card? 47%
Ultimately, it’s a little less than where we want to be, but still close to the goal. Below we’ll lay out who JLD was right about and wrong about.
Teams we were most right about
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
Carolina Panthers
Teams we were most wrong about
Minnesota Vikings
Tennessee Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denver Broncos
Final Power Rankings
Wild Card Predictions
Games JLD will be watching
Let’s be honest, I’ll probably watch them all. But, the two games in particular I have my eyes on are also my two biggest “upsets”.
Chargers vs. Jacksonville
JLD predicts that Jacksonville will take this one. They have a point differential of +54 compared to the Chargers at +7, but that’s not all. They are nearly even on scoring percentage and allow scoring, but the difference is how often the Jags force turnovers on defense. They get a turnover on 14.4% of possessions, that’s 4th in the league folks.
Giants vs. Vikings
It’s been no secret that JLD has been very wrong about the Vikes record and very adament that they have merely come out on the right end of very close games compared to similar teams. I have them ranked 21st, the lowest of any of the playoff teams. I know, no respect! This isn’t personal, I actually enjoy watching them do well, its just the stats baby. Their point differential is -3! the Giants is -6…meaning this is a good matchup and could be another close one. The Vikes turnover the ball on 12% of possessions, which is 14th highest in the league and the Giants are at 7%, which is #1 in the lowest in the league. That switches on the defensive side. The Vikes force turnovers on 12% of possessions and the Giants, 9%. My point, this is a good matchup and the the Giants will win. Sorry Vikings friends.
The only picks I know I will be right on, the Eagles and Chiefs will definitely advance to the divisional round. Hold your applause.
Either way, this will be an awesome weekend. Thanks for tuning in again and we’ll see you next week.