It’s been awhile my friends, but we are back in business as the season kicks off! I’ve been contemplating whether to continue or not. To be frank, I don’t have that many followers. But, it’s been fun and I thought at the very least I would share how I think the season will go.
JLD Kick-Off Power Rankings
To share how I work a little bit, I begin with my post-season rankings from last year. Then, I adjust as major events occur (Free Agency, Draft, etc.) and average them down to get an idea of how teams improved, regressed or stayed the same. It’s a little scientific, but less based on data than I would like. I don’t feel like my early predictions are as good without the solid data that we’ll have after about 3 weeks, but we have to start somewhere. So, here’s my pre-season rankings for each team:
There’s plenty to disagree with here, but again, it’s a starting place. These rankings are used week to week to predict the games for the entire season for my predictions. I have made some changes to my algorithm this year, as I’m always tweaking. As many of you know, I have the goal of 60% for playoff team predictions and the same for week to week picks. Last year, I correctly picked 8 of the 14 playoff teams last year, or 57% (close). For week to week predictions, I did hit my goal and slightly more, at 63%. So, for this year, with the tweaking, I hope to hit 65%.
How it works
As a team loses, they lose 1.5 spots; when they win, they gain 1.5 spots. After that adjustment, the rankings are re-set 1-32. Also, upsets are predicted to happen 50% of the time when the lower ranked team is within 3 ranking points of their opponent. For example, for this prediction model, if Arizona plays Tampa Bay, they have a 50% chance of beating them and gaining 1.5 spots. Depending on how things line up, they could jump out of the 32nd place. By the same token, the top teams are vulnerable to lose, so you don’t just have the top 2 teams make the Super Bowl. As this adjusts, you get to see how strength of schedule really affects both the rankings and the results for the season.
Playoff Predictions
For purposes of time, I won’t share with you the seed predictions, but just the 7 teams from each conference that will make it. We’ll assess how right or wrong I am as we go through the season. These are in no particular order…
NFC Playoff Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco
The stand outs are glaring and I can hear all of you now with Atlanta and Green Bay. First, someone will come out of the NFC South and the Saints are the likely team. For Atlanta and Green Bay, I encourage you to go through the schedule and see if it’s such a long shot. I’m counting on at least 7 teams in the NFC winning under 5 games, that leaves 9 teams for 7 spots. Falling just short in these predictions, notably, Minnesota and Seattle. Far fetched? Just think about it.
AFC Playoff Team
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
LA Chargers
The most notable missing teams here the Jets and the Bengals, but again, I don’t argue with predictions at this point. I don’t even have to agree with the results, I’m interested in the outcomes of the algorithm. Here, to take the Bengals for instance, they play a lot of those games within 3 ranking points of them. So, lets take a look at those opponents. Baltimore (twice), San Francisco, Buffalo, Pittsburgh (twice), Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Kansas City. At a 50% chance to lose any of these, let’s say they lose exactly half of them, that’s 4 or 5 losses, which puts them down 6-8 ranking points. They started at #5, and they are now at #11-#13. Again, not such a stretch when you think about it. Still, I would say “not likely”, but making the case for the math. Stay with me here.
Super Bowl Matchup
According to the algorithm, the Super Bowl matchup will be….Baltimore vs. Dallas!
For the record, I have Baltimore winning the Super Bowl and making Lamar Jackson MVP. As a Chiefs fan, I hope I’m wrong and pretty much everyone thinks I’m wrong about Dallas, so I’ll spare us the math on that one. Baltimore for the win!
Week 1 Predictions
For this year, we’ll have a new format where it will show each team and their opponent, which will help me share the results of how each week went. So, when you see this again, it will be with the actual outcome next to it and a running total of correctness.
That’s it for now! I’m excited to get the season started and see how wrong I am. I’m sure you are too! Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts.