Welcome to the almost last edition of JLD Today. At least, it’s the last edition of the season, then I’ll be evaluating whether to continue another season. Next week, I plan to release my final power rankings for all the teams, thus setting up for free agency should I continue. It’s been fun sharing my thoughts and stats with you and I hope you have enjoyed it too.
Today, we’ll analyze why each team could win. At the end, I’ll share my prediction of the game. If you recall, in preseason I picked the Bengals and Eagles to be here, with the Eagles winning. Additionally, I had the goal of finishing the season with 60-70% predictions correct. I currently sit at 59% and if my pick today is correct, JLD will reach 60%.
As many of you know, I am a die-hard Chiefs fan, but JLD continues to strive to take the emotion out of the predictions and just use the data. Let’s see how I do.
Why Philly Could Win
Let’s begin with the cornerstone of my stats deck, the scoring margin. Philly has the largest scoring margin (Points For minus Points Against) in the entire league, +188. This is 50 points higher than the Chiefs. It could be argued by some that Philly had a much easier schedule and they would be correct, but the Super Bowl has never been decided on such a measure, so it’s irrelevant here. The fact is that the Eagles have dominated their opponents all year, and Jalen Hurts missed a few games while they did it.
They were also 8th in offensive penalty yards. They allowed teams to score only 32% of the time and caused turnovers about 15% of the time. In all of these categories, they are better than the Chiefs.
Why Kansas City Could Win
The Chiefs most convincing stat is that they score on 46% of possessions, best in the league. It could be pointed out that their schedule was also much tougher in terms of defensive teams than Philly’s, but like I have pointed out, that kind of stat doesn’t stack up here. This stat points out that some very good defenses had little answer to the offensive output Kansas City produces.
The also only turned over the ball on 10% of possessions, 8th best in the league. The defense, with 6 rookie starters, were 11th in defensive penalty yards, much better than Philly. These are the categories that the Chiefs dominate the Eagles.
Super Bowl Champion
My prediction comes with a huge caveat, which I’ll share in a minute. Remember, my goal is to hit 60% on my predictions and if I get this right, JLD will reach that goal (just barely). It would come with a price because it would mean my favorite team would lose, the Chiefs.
Prediction: Eagles 30 - Chiefs 20
The caveat is that my gut tells my that while this could happen, it’s not likely. The Chiefs experience, along with Andy Reid’s can more than overcome these stats. They have been doing it all year. They’ve been underdogs in each of their two playoff games, despite being the #1 seed. Some say they didn’t earn it, due the the Bills-Bengals game fallout. Others say the Eagles have destiny on their side and have the most talented roster. I don’t know how much of any of this is true because media and fans generally want the best story.
If the Chiefs pull this off, I’ll be cheering wildly. If they don’t, I’ll quietly congratulate myself on being right from the beginning of the season about the Eagles. Either way, this has been a fun season for me and I hope you have enjoyed the content.
Please comment on whether you would want these articles to continue. Also, I would love to hear what kinds of content you would like to see me talk about and any advice you may have.
For now, JLD will sign off. Enjoy the Super Bowl and next week I’ll share my final article, the year end Power Rankings.