JLD is back for the 2nd season. I’ve been on a break determining if I wanted to continue to share my thoughts. For those of you reading for the first time, JLD is for those that want non-subjective, stats based, no emotion analysis of the teams. You’ll see everything from weekly power rankings during the season to week by week game predictions. This time of year is for mock drafts, early power rankings and season predictions.
This week, we’ll look at the post-free agency (pre-draft) rankings. You will see a comparison to my “Way Too Early” rankings, which I did not share, but they are based on JLD rankings after the Super Bowl. The “Way Too Early” rankings do not take into account free agents, but the Post-Free Agency Rankings do, that’ll be the difference.
Along with those rankings, I’ll share my over-reactions for each team. These are what I call the classic emotional responses to changes in each team, either positive or negative. This is comparable to those fans that when a team wins, they are going all the way, but when they lose, they should fire their coach. I’ll explain why it’s an over-reaction.
Let’s get started:
#32 Arizona Cardinals
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 32
Off-season Over-reaction: Cardinals are the biggest losers in free-agency
With losing Chosen Anderson and likely trading DeAndre Hopkins, it appears Kyler Murray doesn’t have as many targets. While they haven’t made a lot of moves as of yet, they still have Murray, will be bringing in a whole new staff. Namely, bringing in Jonathan Gannon is the best move so far. With Gannon having lead the Eagles defense the last two years, this is a positive move that will have big benefits for the Cards. If the defense is well coached, Kyler shouldn’t have to do it all by himself.
Second, the Cards have the third pick, which I believe will become very valuable for any team looking to jump up in front of the Colts at 4 to grab a QB. It’s likely that Anthony Richardson would be worth moving up for if you are the Bucs or Titans. They already have 8 picks in the draft, they may get more with the Hopkins trade and the trade of the #3 pick OR they can stay and pick a WR at that prime spot. The Cards could improve fast.
#31 Indianapolis Colts
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 31
Off-season Over-reaction: The Colts are at rock bottom
Having swung and missed with aging veteran Matt Ryan last year, and Frank Reich was fired after a very underwhelming 2022 campaign. There’s good news and it all hinges on if the Colts can nail the QB pick at #4 (or even move up if needed). A young QB with a proven QB developer like Shane Steichen (who develops Jalen Hurts) are sitting in a very good position to be the most improved team of 2023. The core of their team is still together and it’s a team that had high expectations last year. Plus, they have 9 picks to beef up whatever they want.
#30 Houston Texans
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 29
Off-season Over-reaction: The Texans are in the pit of despair
Things haven’t been the same since they lost Watson. But I say “Good riddance”. The Texans will take a QB at #2 and it will be a good one. We don’t know which one but likely Stroud or Young. Either would be an upgrade from Davis Mills. With DeMeco Ryans taking the head coaching role, you can bet the defense will take a positive step forward. It is also noted that the Texan have 2 FIRST ROUND PICKS! AND 5 picks in the first three rounds. That’s a lot to be excited about.
#29 Chicago Bears
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 30
Off-season Over-reaction: The Bears should’ve taken a QB at #1
I heard this a few times, but honestly I don’t understand the argument. The Bears were the team closest to being a threat and we all kept waiting for them to start winning. They lost a whopping 7 games by less than 10 points, which if they had won would’ve 10 games! That’s nothing to sneeze at. Now you have Justin Fields, Coach Eberflus in his 2nd season, and 4 picks in the first 3 rounds. Oh yeah, and they landed DJ Moore in the Carolina trade. They will be much improved, and along with the Colts, could be the most improved this coming year.
#28 Los Angeles Rams
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 26
Off-season Over-reaction: The Rams will be in full reset mode in 2023
I can’t disagree that the Rams had the biggest Super Bowl hangover of any team I can remember. But I disagree that it’s the end of their dominance, but more like a hiccup. The deck got stacked against them last season, with way too many injuries to overcome. They lost their starting QB, their top 3 receivers, 4 starting offensive lineman, an All-Pro DT and more. That will not be the case to start the 2023 campaign. If there is anything going against them, it’s the lack of a first round pick, which was traded to Detroit for Stafford two years ago. Still, I like their roster and they will add pieces, PLUS we all know what Sean McVay can do with a healthy roster. Likely won’t be the train wreck we got used to seeing last season.
#27 Tennessee Titans
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 25
Off-season Over-reaction: Everything is solved by Derrick Henry
This isn’t the official line, but it’s what everyone brings up first when talking about the Titans. Let’s be clear, the Titans are in a bigger hole than anyone notices. Ryan Tannehill has played his best ball and they need a solution at QB to move forward. Could a trade up be in order to grab someone like Richardson or is Malik Willis the future?
For the Henry argument, I go to the stats. Henry was 2nd in both rushing yards (1,538) and yards per game (96.1), but look at yards per carry (4.4) and he’s at 29th! 4 fumbles puts him 10th and he lost 2 of those. For all the effort, the Titans turned all those yards into 7 wins. My point, the Titans need more. A good argument is made that defense would help, and it’s not the wrong take, but having a threat at QB will turn those running yards into more scoring.
#26 Denver Broncos
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 28
Off-season Over-reaction: Sean Payton will turn Russell Wilson around, making the Broncos a contender
I will attempt to re-frame this to the proper reaction: Sean Payton will turn the Broncos around and eventually make them a contender. Last season, I took the pre-season stance that Russell Wilson’s best football was behind him and I really under-appreciated the situation. Not only did he play pretty badly, he became a huge (and weird) distraction to his team. The funniest to me was the calisthenics on the plane while his teammates were trying to sleep or just un-wind after a loss to the lowly Jets. This was the comedy highlight of the season for me. Here’s one of the tweets:
Russell Wilson worked out and stretched for four of the eight hours on the flight from Denver to London. Said he was doing high knees in the aisle when the rest of the guys were asleep.
10:04 AM · Oct 26, 2022
The point here is that Payton will have to knock down the non-sense, then he’s still got to squeeze out a little more from Wilson, who is now what I would consider Joe Flacco (former Super Bowl winner also). And the bad news? Wilson is under a 5 YEAR EXTENSION and has a cap hit of $85 million! Next year, the hit is $49.6 million! The Broncos don’t get a cap savings by cutting him until after the 2024-25 season, so THIS HAS TO WORK! I’m not optimistic. His QB rating the last 3 years (2020 to 2022): 105.1, 103.1, 84.4.
#25 New Orleans Saints
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 27
Off-season Over-reaction: Derek Carr will be the answer at QB
Deep breath, this is a lot to take in. I think the Saints are on the right track in terms of head coach, Dennis Allen. Allen worked for Sean Payton for 12 seasons and has been coaching for 21, he knows what he’s doing. However, they are in bigger trouble than it seems. It’s hard to know where to start, but 5 of their 10 losses were 10+ points. When they won, it was close, with 6 of their 7 wins being 10 points or less.
Now for Carr…<deep breath>. Carr was at the epicenter of over-reactions last year. I caught a lot of heat for saying the Raiders would finish dead last in the AFC West. Many were saying they would un-seat the Chiefs. I was wrong they finished 3rd, one whole game ahead of the Broncos (another pre-season favorite last year). Carr had an 86.3 rating last year. Big deal, he had a rough season right? Wrong. His career average, is 91.8. His best QBR in his CAREER is 64.3. Ryan Tannehill’s career rating? 91.9. Tannehill’s career QBR best: 72.6. My argument is that Carr is a step down for the Saints and it will be short lived. The Saints will keep him for two years because he has a cap hit of $52.8 and $17.1 million over the next two years, then he will be gone in year 3.
#24 Atlanta Falcons
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 24
Off-season Over-reaction: The Falcons are quietly rebuilding
Ummm, this is the most confusing team for me. They made a whopping 12 transactions in the first week of free agency, but most of their moves left us saying “Who is that?”. Their most notable was to sign Heinicke, but he will be the back up. Desmond Ridder will be a first year starter, no one knows if Coach Arthur Smith is the real deal and they only have 3 picks in the first 3 rounds. But that’s where improvement happens, in the boring signings and slow, steady work. No one was blown away by the Chiefs off-season moves the last couple of years and its hard to argue they didn’t improve. I’m not saying the Falcons will be contenders, but they’ll be a little better (likely), but not enough to say wow (yet).
#23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 21
Off-season Over-reaction: Tom Brady’s departure means reset
Yes, it does mean reset, but I would argue that the reset started in his last season. He played one year too long and that delayed the Bucs a bit, though they were contenders (sort of). They will have their starter in Baker Mayfield, though many would say he’s not the answer. I believe Baker has never had a good shot at being good. The disfunction of the Browns and the disaster of the Panthers left him in terrible situations. However, he did pull the Browns out of obscurity AND if anyone saw him play with Sean McVey last year, they saw what I believe to be Mayfields’ potential. His career average QB rating is 86.5 (not great), but played as good as 95.9 in Cleveland. In 5 games for the Rams, he was 86.4. That’s already better than Derek Carr last year and he’s considered the savior of New Orleans, just saying. The Bucs may be in better shape than we think. Plus, they have 9 picks in the draft and still have a pretty nice looking roster. Todd Bowles has maybe two more years to get this team to contender level, maybe only one if they stink this year, high incentive.
#22 Washington Commanders
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 20
Off-season Over-reaction: Rivera’s third year will be his best
I don’t want to say I dispute this outright, but it seems more likely that it will be a good year and there are better still coming. But a couple of things need to happen. 1.) The team needs new ownership that isn’t Dan Snyder. It looks like this is happening as we speak (Check). 2.) They need consistency and good play at the QB position. I believe they have that in Sam Howell. He’s only played one game, but we got a good enough look that it looks like he will improve and be the guy. (Check, maybe) 3.) Ron Rivera needs to get over the hump like he’s rarely done in his head coaching career. He’s only had 3 winning seasons in his career, all with the Panthers, one of which got him to a Super Bowl. But besides those years, his best after that is 8 wins, which was last season. Rivera is the key to getting beyond that, and it’s far from guaranteed.
#21 Cleveland Browns
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 20
Off-season Over-reaction: A whole season with Watson will turn it around
This is a horrible take. First, Watson played six games at a passer rating of 79.1. His best year at Houston was 2020, when he had a rating of 112.4! What was their record that year: 4-12. He will need a whole team behind him if the Browns want to “turn it around”. Their defense allowed 420 points last year (24 per game). The only QB that can get away with that is Mahomes. He’s not Mahomes.
#20 New York Jets
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 22
Off-season Over-reaction: Trading for Rodgers will make them a contender
Don’t get me started, I have plenty of emotional reasons to drop kick this take. He’ll never put in the work that Super Bowl winners require, like pre-season training with his teammates. As we speak, Mahomes has already had throw arounds with his offensive weapons, you’ll never see Rodgers do that. Never once has he taken responsibility for the outcomes of seasons. It’s the coach (McCarthy), or the GM (doesn’t get me weapons), always something. But the most compelling lies in the stats. He’s had three 13 win seasons with LeFleur, something that hasn’t happened for the Packers since 2011. That still has not been enough to make it past the divisional round.
Meanwhile, the Jets, with Zach Wilson at QB, turned a lot of heads. In Saleh’s second year, they won 7 games. 4 of those games were by less than 7 points, so they were a whisper away from 11 games won. Instead of going for Rodgers, with all the cost of draft picks, money and drama, why not move up in the draft to get one of these hot shots? They could jump up to Arizona’s spot and get a QB of the future that would be good in the long haul. If you give up big draft picks and money for Rodgers, you’ll be paying for that in future drafts and he’ll be gone and retired, likely without giving you a championship.
#19 Green Bay Packers
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 22
Off-season Over-reaction: Trading Rodgers will help us re-build
Rodgers has had a historic run with the Packers, but frankly I think this is the least over-reaction in the list. Even if Love isn’t the answer, he deserves a shot. The Packers deserve to see if LeFleur is a great coach (I believe he is). And the fans deserve to know they at least have a QB that will give it all to win, for them! Rodgers will not do certain things and I think it’s poetic justice that he’s being pushed out the way he pushed Favre out. Good riddance.
Alright, enough with the emotion. Rodgers only won them 8 games and I believe Love could do at least that good. And with Rodgers $68 million cap hit (you read that right), they will have money to go get weapons. BUT, the Packers front office NEEDS to make this trade happen (to the detriment of the Jets) because they need to free up that money while there are still moves and free agents to sign, not to mention what they could do in the draft with that capital.
#18 Carolina Panthers
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 18
Off-season Over-reaction: Getting rid of Sam Darnold
I’ll bring Derek Carr into it one more time. Derek is being heralded as the savior, as he finished up with the Raiders with an 86 rating. Sam Darnold, with 6 games under his belt, was at 92.6. That was not enough to make a dent in his reputation as a bust. So, why is he a bust and not Derek Carr? If you have that answer you’re smarter than me (not hard to do). Now, they traded up to get that coveted first spot, obviously for a QB. We’ll see that changes the trajectory in Carolina, but I’m skeptical.
#17 New York Giants
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 16
Off-season Over-reaction: This is “prove it” time for Daniel Jones
While there might be some truth to this, let’s look at the stats. Jones went for 3,200 yards, 15 TD’s, 5 interceptions and a 92.5 rating. In contrast, let’s take Russell Wilson, who very few questioned until late last year, but still has 6 years on his contract. Russell had 3,500 yards, 16 TD’s, 11(!) interceptions and an 84.4 rating. Which do you take? Is 300 more yards and 1 extra TD worth that much more to you? Not me, but in the NFL it gets you $22 million this year and $124 million fully guaranteed for the next 6 years. Daniel Jones gets…$9.5 million and $82 million fully guaranteed for the next 4 years. Why the difference? Wilson won a super bowl 9 years ago. Lay off my man Dan!
#16 Las Vegas Raiders
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 19
Off-season Over-reaction: The Raiders are on the way up with Garoppolo and McDaniels
Jimmy G is definitely an upgrade over Carr, I’ve said my piece about that. Where I beg to differ is whether Josh McDaniel’s can bring him along and up the level of play in Las Vegas. McDaniel’s, I believe, rode the coattails of Belichick and Brady over the years. The facts are, that as a head coach, he’s a whopping 17-28 over three seasons with the Broncos and now the Raiders. He was 6-11 in his first year and remember, the Raiders were going to be in the top of the division in pre-season last year. They had a beast of a lineup (and Carr) and six games was all they won, though to Josh’s credit, he did beat the Patriots. Bottom line: Jimmy G will need extra help because McDaniel’s is not the answer in Vegas. This is a hot seat year for him and if he manages less than 10 wins, with this roster, he’ll be looking for a job.
#15 Minnesota Vikings
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 14
Off-season Over-reaction: The Vikings window is closing
This kind of talk is pretty common in Minnesota sports in general, always a little doomsday. But let’s look at the progress made since Kirk Cousins started there. In Cousins first four seasons with the Vikes, the best they did was 10-6 and averaged only 8 wins. In Kevin O’Connell’s first season, they win 13, which they hadn’t done since 2017, the year before signing Kirk. Kirk’s rating last year? 92.5, the same as Daniel Jones AND his worst rating since 2014 in Washington. So what’s the difference? 1.) He made the most of it, with over 4,500 yards and 29 TD’s. And 2.) Kevin brought in a high-octane, fast paced offense that seized on the talent around Kirk Cousins. For example, Justin Jefferson (in only 3 seasons) has already outpaced what Stephon Diggs did in Minnesota. His best season? You guessed it, 2022, where he had 1800 yards and 8 TD’s (that’s 28% of the teams TD’s)! Window not closing, they’re on their way up.
#14 Pittsburgh Steelers
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 17
Off-season Over-reaction: Slow and steady wins the race
If ever there was a clear Tortoise and the Hare metaphor, it’s the Steelers. They have made their dough by building through the draft for decades. This offseason is the most active they have ever been, telling us Mike Tomlin and Company recognize that they have to get aggressive. They “got their guy” in Kenny Pickett last draft. It’s estimate that in this offseason, they have signed as many as 6 new starters and it could be more after training camp. Thus, the Steelers move up to 14 and could move more.
#13 New England Patriots
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 13
Off-season Over-reaction: Bill Belichick will Belichick his way to the top again
The facts are that Bill is spinning his wheels. He hasn’t done bad since Brady left, probably better than we thought, but with 7, 10 and 8 wins since Brady’s departure, that is the very definition of spinning the wheels, not up, not down, just steady and boring. Belichick is sitting at the roulette table waiting to hit on #10, Mac Jones. But Mac has been….steady, but not productive, averaging an 89 rating. I expect more of the same this year, top 15 for sure, but not much better than that.
#12 Baltimore Ravens
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 17
Off-season Over-reaction: Anything to do with Lamar Jackson
I’ve been trying to process this over the last few months. Why won’t Baltimore “Show him the money”? In times like this, I go to the stats. In his 5 years, he’s averaged a 96.7 rating, 2,441 yards and 20 TD’s. That’s not to mention his rushing yards, averaging 887 yards! Not bad, but he’s missed 5 games each of the last two years. With the comparisons of him vs. Mahomes, people are calling for him to make top dollar. So, let’s look at Mahomes quick: 105.7 rating average, 4.040 yards and 32 TD’s. I would argue that Jackson should be resigned to a 4 year contract, but not big enough to re-set the market. He will likely walk away from that, but I can understand where the Ravens are coming from. However, what are they without him?
#11 Miami Dolphins
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 12
Off-season Over-reaction: Should Tua come back?
This has nothing to do with stats. Tua will be the QB, unless he physically can’t play. The emotional side of my brain says that this guy should not put on pads again. Everyone saw how he staggered to the ground, just weeks before getting another brutal hit. My guess is that he will play and since he was just released to play, that’s probably what happens. My heart wishes someone would talk him out of it. But it won’t be the Dolphins that do that.
#10 Seattle Seahawks
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 10
Off-season Over-reaction: Why aren’t they doing more in free agency?
The Seahawks have been relatively quiet in post-season moves. Surprising considering how close they were last year to being a very good team. In my mind though, I trust Pete Carroll. He looked like a genius moving on from Russell Wilson after most people were scratching their heads at the move. Also, how in the world in Geno Smith (of all people) playing the way he’s playing after a pretty resounding label of “bust” has been written all over him by the league? It’s Pete! He’s a players coach and those that buy in will succeed and by his sheer will the Hawks will be in the hunt. Trust the process, Pete is also an old school, build through the draft kind of guy, so watch closely, they will be in the hunt again.
#9 Jacksonville Jaguars
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 9
Off-season Over-reaction: Jags have momentum
This will be a real trick, keeping the momentum that they built this last season. They started slow but finished strong, making it to the divisional round against the Chiefs while only winning 9 games during the season. The problem is their cap. They started the offseason $20 million over the cap. Today, they have a little over $14 million in space. They have lost the likes of Shaq Griffin, but have re-signed 12 players in the offseason. Plus, they’ve added Marvin Jones (WR), Arden Key (Edge) and Jawaan Taylor (RT). Not to mention, Doug Pederson’s 2nd year should be better, it always is. This overreaction may just be the right reaction.
#8 Los Angeles Chargers
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 7
Off-season Over-reaction: The Chargers are primed to win the AFC
As a Chiefs fan, I’ve heard this for the last 15 years, like clockwork, every off-season and every season, the Chargers get pants-ed in the school yard. Could this be their year? They have a scary depth chart and even added to it. Very quietly, the Chargers signed Eric Kendricks, to sit next to Joey Bosa on an already stacked defense. No stats in the world explain why the Chargers can’t put it together year after year, but they’ve got to be due, right? But all the hype around Herbert is probably what’s keeping them out of it. He’s still developing and it’s not time to stop that, but let’s keep it real. Herbert has been an average player, while being given a long leash with his upside. He’s still a potential, but after 3 seasons and a rating of 96.2, that’s hardly head-turning and may have some relevance to our question.
#7 Detroit Lions
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 8
Off-season Over-reaction: The Lions are a flash in the pan
Detroit, with all the teasing that Dan Campbell took about “biting kneecaps”, managed to turn my head last year. I thought there were many games that could have gone their way that didn’t, but in the end, they barely missed the playoffs. Also, they managed to beat some very good teams: Green Bay (twice), Minnesota, Jacksonville…pretty impressive. Also, Jared Goff takes a lot of “guff” for being a Rams cast off, but managed a 99.3 rating this last year, well above his average of 92.8. So, flash in the pan? Maybe not so much.
#6 Dallas Cowboys
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 6
Off-season Over-reaction: Over-rated
This is always the argument when the Cowboys get good, they’re over-rated. Hmm, let’s look. They were 12-5 last season. They beat Cincinnati, Minnesota, Philly and Tampa Bay (to knock Tom out of his last playoffs). They were this good while Dak played well below his average rating of 97.8, at 91.1. Tony Pollard was so good that Dallas said goodbye to Zeke Elliott. They’re WR corp is Lamb, Cooks and Gallup, not bad. Their defense looks virtually the same and OH YEAH, they’re still in the NFC East, so they still have to play Philly and I believe, a much better Giants team this year. So, the east is still tough and they were right there with them last year.
#5 Cincinnati Bengals
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 6
Off-season Over-reaction: They keep coming up short
It’s definitely hard to swallow when you come as close as the Bengals have to winning the big one. In fact, one could argue that they couldn’t have worse luck. If it weren’t for the game Damar Hamlin went down, the Bengals were on their way to the #1 seed (I believe). That kept them from a buy week and likely not having to play the Bills so early in the playoffs, leaving them maybe one step slower during the AFC Championship, which saw them getting beat by the Chiefs in heart-breaking fashion.
But who have they lost? Well, they lost TE Hurst and HB Perine, both big contributors. They gained Orlando Brown (LT from the Chiefs) and Safety Nick Scott (Rams). Not to mention several re-signings of veterans, they are still in good shape to be a top contender.
#4 Philadelphia Eagles
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 2
Off-season Over-reaction: The Eagles will run it back to the Super Bowl
The biggest move in favor of this is signing Jalen Hurts to a long term contract, 5 years, $255 million. The biggest move against a run back is in fact the same signing. We’ve seen it over and over again, when the big QB get big dollars, it takes away the teams ability to sign free agents and big talent in other areas. The only exception has been the Chiefs who have re-written the formula and the Eagles were watching. They put a huge amount in signing bonus ($23.2 million) and the cap hit is only $4.7 million as a result. Going forward, they will periodically re-negotiate, adding in more signing bonus to defer some of the salary to a later year.
This year, they lost C.J. Gardner-Johnson and a few others, but really have done well in keeping their roster intact. The biggest move was keeping C Jason Kelce, the backbone of the O-line for one more year. They are sitting on $20 million in cap space, but with an alarming amount of dead money ($54 million). The Chief in comparison have much less space, but only $7.7 million in dead cap. That dead cap can be a killer as you try to beef up for big years in the playoffs and keeping depth on your roster. This is why I have the Eagles at #4 instead of #1 or #2.
#3 Buffalo Bills
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 4
Off-season Over-reaction: The Bills will win a Super Bowl
The Bills are about as scary of a team that I can remember. Josh Allen runs people over and laughs at getting hit hard. He reminds me of Roethlisberger. So, that makes me go to the stats. Big Ben had a career rating of 93.5, averaged 23 TD’s and won 2 Super Bowls. So far, Allen’s rating is 92.2, averaging 28 TD’s and has not appeared in a Super Bowl, but managed an AFC Championship in 2021. This is where the comparison ends. Allen’s Achilles heal is interceptions, throwing an average of 12 per season. Big Ben only averaged (oh wait!) 12! So, not much difference. The difference lies in the playoff success, those pesky turnovers. Allen has 4 interceptions in 8 playoff games, but that’s better than Big Ben. It’s the fumbles. He fumbled 13 times during the season and 3(!) playoff fumbles. That will have to improve if they hope to win the big one.
#2 Kansas City Chiefs
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 3
Off-season Over-reaction: They lost too many good players to be Super Bowl contenders again
As a Chiefs fan, this aspect has worried me every year, especially after a Super Bowl win. However, after 5 AFC Championships and 3 Super Bowl appearances, with 2 win, in the last 5 years, I’m waiting for the magic to happen again. This year has been the biggest exodus of offensive talent. They have lost JJ Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, Andrew Wylie and Orlando Brown and that’s not the end of it. However, if everyone recalls, when Tyreek alone left last season for the Dolphins, no one thought the Chiefs could withstand that.
This is different, a lot of losses, but that comes after every Super Bowl win, for everyone. Brett Veach has proven for 5 years that he knows how to re-build and with Patrick Mahomes in the prime of his career (and salary), the Chiefs are staring re-building in the face every year. And every year, there they have been, the AFC Championship at the least. Will that continue? We’ll revisit after the draft, but no stats will prove anything at this point, except for the results of the last 5 years under Veach and Reid.
#1 San Franciso 49ers
“Way Too Early” Ranking – 1
Off-season Over-reaction: No way they win a Super Bowl
If not for losing every QB on the roster, Philly would not have had such an easy win in the NFC Championship. Brock Purdy was playing lights out and the addition of McCaffery was paying off HUGE dividends. Plus, before Purdy got hurt, it looked like another Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl was upcoming. They kept a lot of their players, unloaded some salary cap with Jimmy G’s departure and look to capitalize on a great roster situation. My only concern for them would be only $2.2 million in cap space left for the draft, which means there are more roster moves to make yet. Let’s see how it goes.
Coming up for the week of the draft: mock drafts! Thanks for reading and be sure to follow me on Twitter (@jldtoday) and subscribe to my substack.