Welcome to week 17 and the final week of 2022. It’s been quite a ride sharing my thoughts and predictions with you and I appreciate all that are following. At this point in the season, JLD’s picks sit at 134-106 and 56%. The goal is still 60%, running all the way through the playoffs.
In terms of preseason predictions, JLD is even or within 1 win with 9 teams, meaning about 9 teams are doing exactly what we thought. They are Buffalo, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland, LA Chargers, Philly, Carolina New Orleans and San Francisco. There are five more that could fall into our predicted record range over the next two weeks, but we’ll wait and see what happens there.
Power Rankings
The Bills look to be in control of their own destiny, ranking 2nd under only the 49ers. What’s holding them back from #1? In one word, turnovers. They have a turnover rate near 15%, the second worse rate in the league. The only team worse in this area is the Colts, that’s how bad that is and it’s there Achilles heal. They also, though, lead in margin of victory and are second in Scoring percentage, which explains their ability to overcome that turnover rate.
The 49ers have the second highest margin of victory (145) and score on 40% of possessions (Bills=46%). In contrast, their turnover rate is 8th best in the league (10%), which accounts for how they are able to outrank the Bills. This doesn’t mean that they will necessarily be the two Super Bowl teams, but it helps.
Here’s a look at the top 5 teams (Margin of victory, Scoring % and Turnover %):
Week 17 Predictions
Games JLD will be watching
Miami vs. New England
Miami needs to win to ensure the playoffs. Right now, they sit in the 7th seed with New England on the outside looking in. JLD projections have Miami losing this game, but still making it to the playoffs (just barely). If they can pull off the win this week, Miami will have some leeway next week against the Jets. Two winnable, but not easily so, games for Miami. Again, JLD projects a New England win this weekend.
Vikings vs. Packers
While JLD has not been tooting the Vikings horn (pun intended) this year, they have well over-achieved what we thought they would be. That being said, they have been living dangerously with their cumulative margin of victory only at 5 points! JLD projects a tight game and the Packers scoring the upset. The Vikings have already clinched the division, so this only serves to take a little wind out of their sails going into the playoffs, which can not be a good thing for them. We’ll see how it plays out.
Bills vs. Bengals
JLD predicts a Bills win, but it will not be easy. The Bengals are trying to win their division to get the higher seed and the Bills will lose the number one seed with a loss (and a KC win). The Bengals defense will be the key. They allow scoring on 37% of drives and are one of the most penalized defenses in the league. If they do better in both of those categories, they can win. If not, the Bills will walk to the number one seed, only having to play the Patriots in week 18.
Playoff Projections
Using the JLD Rankings to project the next two weeks, here’s how the playoff brackets look:
Notably, Jacksonville will win their division over the Titans and Miami will sneak into the last playoff spot, along with Baltimore and the Chargers in the final wild card spots.
As a surprise, Carolina snakes the division from Tampa Bay (will that finish Tom’s career?). Dallas, Giants and Seahawks round out the wild card spots.
As a reminder and for the record, my preseason Super Bowl picks are still alive. The prediction was a Bengals/Eagles Super Bowl with the Eagles winning.
Please continue to comment, sending your picks through the comment button below. Also, thank you for sharing and following. Here’s wishing you a happy new year. See you in 2023!