I intended to have this ready earlier. However, two days ago, while in the middle of my mock for this article, the Jets finally came to an agreement with the Packers on the Aaron Rodgers trade. He always makes it about himself, even in my mock draft. So, in disgust, with my mock draft blown, I shut my computer and gave up.
Now that the dust has settled, I’m ready to share my draft predictions. Along with that, a friend of mine and I have always had a particular set of prop bets that we would try to predict. We would bet something small, some sort of alcohol prize and enjoy the evening. I’m sharing those with you today. In fact, we’ll start off with that.
To explain my process…it’s very simple. I use the Scouts.com Top 300 Big Board to rank the players. In other words, I use someone else’s work! I then use a draft needs list from The Draft Network to determine the needs from Primary, Secondary and Ancillary lists. Example: According to The Draft Network, Philly’s primary needs are EDGE and RB. I use that, along with my finely tuned intellect (not really) to determine what I think the picks will be.
I do not, ever, try to predict draft trades. I play it straight up as if there will be no changes to the order, but we all know that’s never the case. Still, the prop bets seem to still hold somewhat even if a trade blows up my predictions. I will discuss a particular trade that I’m watching for later. Now, let’s dive in…
Prop Bet #1 & #2: How many QB’s drafted in the 1st Round AND how many go in the Top 5?
No surprise, QB’s will figure high as always, probably higher than most are worth. But to a team that needs one, it’s worth the risk and sometimes (more often than not) they blow it.
My mock has 4 (count them 4!) in the first round. That’s probably not a surprise. I also have 3 QB’s going in the top 5, also not surprising.
#1: Young (Carolina)
#2: Stroud (Houston)
#4: Richardson (Indy, if they don’t reach for Levis, haha)
#19: Levis (Tampa Bay)
Prop Bet #3 & #4: How many WR’s in the 1st Round AND how many go in the Top 10?
Wide Receivers are always a hot ticket in the first round, but I’m predicting something odd. I’m predicting only 4 WR’s get drafted in the first round and none in the top 10. This might seem surprising, but with a LOT of top talent at OT, CB and EDGE, that likely takes some attention away from this WR class. But it will make for an exciting 2nd and 3rd round. My picks:
#12: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Houston): this will pair him with his teammate from the #2 pick and will be irresistible for Houston in their #12 pick.
#22: Zay Flowers (Baltimore): Go ahead, give Lamar some more weapons.
#27: Jordan Addison (Buffalo): As if they weren’t already scary enough…
#31: Quentin Johnson (KC): They need WR help, bad.
Prop Bet #5: How many OT’s in the 1st Round?
Offensive tackles have become very popular first round picks as the QB talent has grown in the league. These teams need to protect that major asset. But like I mentioned, there’s good talent at CB and EDGE too, so that keeps the numbers down a bit. I’m predicting 4 OT’s in the first round.
#7: Peter Skoronski (Raiders): Jimmy G has been hurt too much already, protect that asset.
#9: Broderick Jones (Chicago): Give Fields time and that team gets good fast.
#11: Paris Johnson, Jr. (Tennessee): They need to protect Malik Willis and see if he’s the QB of the future for them.
#15: Darnell Wright (NY Jets): Gee, I wonder why they would do this?
Prop Bet #6 & #7: How many defensive players will be drafted in the Top 10 and which position group has the most?
I’m predicting 4 total defensive players in the top 10, with 2 of them being edge rushers.
#3: Will Anderson Jr. (Arizona)
#5: Tyree Wilson (Seattle)
Then, one each of DT and CB:
#6: Jalen Carter (Detroit)
#8: Devon Witherspoon (Atlanta)
And my favorite, Prop Bet #8: Which school will have the most draft picks in the 1st Round?
I have a three-way tie for this crown between Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia.
Alabama: Bryce Young (#1), Will Anderson Jr. (#3), and Jahmyr Gibbs (#26 to Dallas, Jerry Jones type of move there)
Ohio State: C.J. Stroud (#2), Paris Johnson Jr. (#11), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (#12)
Georgia: Jalen Carter (#6), Broderick Jones (#9), and Nolan Smith (#14)
So, just looking at the results like this, I have to give the win to Alabama with two Top picks.
Interesting Trade Scenario
I always approach trades with the attitude of “what would I do?”. And I would try to add value to my situation and take advantage of someone else’s needs. Being inspired by Draft Day and Kevin Costner, here’s a couple of things I would do and would love to see!
Arizona Cardinals: If I were them, on draft day morning, I would let it leak that the #3 pick is up for grabs. This would possibly entice someone to move ahead of Indy (who we know is going to grab a QB) and take it away from them. My best bets for this scenario are Seattle and Tampa Bay, both of which would possibly move up for Richardson. Seattle would sit him behind Geno Smith for a year, the move him up and get their next Russell Wilson (a young one, that is). Tampa Bay would try to move on from Tom Brady with a swing for the fences.
This would FORCE Indy to try to jump up the one spot to block the move ups. In short, Arizona could make a killing in draft picks and possibly some player(s) in this three way price war for the #3 pick! If it doesn’t go to Indy, they will be forced to possibly go with someone they didn’t want (while publicly swearing that’s who they did want). This is my dream come true for this draft shake up.
LA Chargers: I could see them jumping up to take Houston’s second pick at #12 to grab a still available Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah). He’s the perfect fit for them and keeps them ahead in the AFC West offensive talent pool. For Houston, it bags them some more picks to play with and they would still have two first round picks this year.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have 10 picks to work with and conventional wisdom says that they will not use them all. What they could do is trade up to take a top WR. So, who are the possibilities? Houston at #12 if they can get to them before the Chargers. Detroit at #18 would be a good spot for a good WR as well. Possibly #20 with Seattle, since Seattle already has an earlier pick to use.
In order to move up to #12, I estimate the price to be to high of a move to make, taking maybe 4-5 picks to get it done. #18 is a little more doable, something like this years 1st and 3rd rounder, plus next years 4th. #20 is most palatable, but maybe not enough unless someone falls to that level that they like. Cost would be possibly be similar to the #18. But, the point is that they have a lot to work with in the way of draft picks and I would expect that they use them for a WR somehow.
So, last prop bet: How many first round trades?
I will go with 3 total trades in the first round. There are just too many good assets to pick up to make too many trades.
So, without any further ado, here’s my mock draft. Give me your draft grade in the comments and if you are up to it, join the predictions of the prop bets. If you submit yours and beat me, I’ll mention you in my post-draft summary next week.
Thanks for joining me and I look forward to the 2023 draft. My favorite time of year. If you’re interested, it’s also my anniversary, 15 years! You know how I know I found the right lady? We are celebrating this weekend so that I can watch the draft AND she’s cool with it. What a hottie!
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