What a “wild” wild card weekend we had last week. Some fabulous games and surprise outcomes. JLD is not usually one to brag, but we had the first clean sweep of predictions we have ever had, so there will be a little chest puffing. Jags coming from 27 down, Giants handling the Vikings and the Cowboys destroying the Bucs…all predicted by JLD.
That pushes our prediction percentage to 59% overall to the ESPN power rankings 58%. Still, I am short of my 60% minimum goal, but we are getting closer. This week will prove to be, at least in my estimation, a much less exciting week due to the matchups. However, there will be some things to watch and a couple of closer games.
We’ll do this article a little differently and go through every matchup, and I’ll make a feeble attempt to predict the score as well. I actually hate score predictions, but for today, I’m in the mood. We’ll start with…
Jacksonville vs. Kansas City
Both teams allow scoring on approximately 36% of possessions, but the offensive output, despite what you saw Jacksonville last week, is much more lopsided. Jacksonville put up an outlier offensive performance, mostly out of desperation and likely burning out what they had in storage. The Jags typically score on 39% of their possessions, but the Chiefs score on a whopping 46% of possessions. In fact, no team scores more often, though some are close. Kansas City 30-23
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia
Philadelphia’s season pivots on how Jalen Hurts performs coming off injury. However, regardless of his presence the Eagles have a point differential on the season of 133 points, which is very impressive. They score 42% of the time against the Giants 37%. The Giants allow scoring on defense 40% of the time and the Eagles 32%. The Eagles defense is much more dangerous on turnovers also, so JLD therefore predicts an Eagles victory. Eagles 27-20
Cincinnati vs. Buffalo
Two behemoths facing off like this is what we all sign up for as NFL fans. This should be an amazing matchup. Cincinnati has been getting stronger as the season progresses and Buffalo is still playing good but maybe not as strong as earlier in the season. Two factors beyond the stats: Cincinnati lost their left tackle in the match against the Ravens. He is not ruled out, but he did dislocate his kneecap and I believe it’s likely he doesn’t play. They clearly missed him last week. Josh Allen has not been playing up to the usual expectation, with 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles last week. If that happens again, it’s hard to see the Bills winning. However, the Bills typically score 45% of the time, second only to the Chiefs. The Bengals score 41%, so no slouching there. The Bills and Bengals allow scoring on 31% and 36% of possessions respectively. The edge goes to the Bills, but this is the game of the week in my mind. Buffalo 30-20
Dallas vs. San Francisco
As classic of a matchup as you can script, this has the makings of another fun game to watch. When you dig into the stats a bit, here’s what you see. The 49ers have outscored their opponents by 199 points! Dallas is equally impressive with a +142 point differential. However, the difference here is defense. Dallas has allowed scoring 34% of the time, while the 49ers sit at only 26% (best in the league). JLD predicts that the 49ers will finish off Dallas and move on the the NFC Championship. 49ers 28-21
That’s it for the JLD Divisional Round predictions. Here’s the summary:
Thanks for joining JLD again for another week of fun predictions. Feel free to share, comment and follow for more un-emotional analysis of the action. See you next week.