I’ve put off writing this article because I’m very emotionally involved. With Kansas City getting back to a 5th straight AFC Championship, my fan-ship is very excited. I’m promised to keep emotion out of my predictions and use only the facts, and I will continue to do so. However, since I’m clearly biased for the Chiefs, I figure “why fight it”. Today, I’ll give you the honest, no emotion, stat-based reason for my prediction and my biased, partisan and intangible reason each team can get to the Super Bowl.
San Francisco vs. Philadelphia
Reasons San Francisco Wins
The 49ers have the highest scoring margin of any team in the league (+191). Think about that, they’ve outscored their opponents by 191 points! They are 3rd in the league in turnover percentage at only 9%. And to top it off, they’ve allowed the least amount of scoring on defense, where teams that play against them only score on them 26% of the time.
Now for my bias…I don’t want to see a 49ers/Chiefs re-match. I also believe that the honeymoon is about to expire for Brock Purdy. Maybe he can keep it up, but maybe not. He’s bound to make a huge mistake soon and I don’t want to see that happen in a Super Bowl.
Reasons Philadelphia Wins
The Eagles have been scoring on 42% of possession, which is very good. Of the remaining four teams, only the Chiefs are better in that category. They also play a pretty clean game in terms of penalty yards, they are #8 on the season for that. For the record, they are also pretty clean on defense, so that’s good for them. None of this gets people excited, it’s very important to their success.
The Eagle have a great story going in Jalen Hurts. He’s been up and down with an injury this year, but he’s definitely up now and he’s looked very solid every time he’s played this year. By the eye test, the Eagles look to me like the most all-around team, though most would say their strength of schedule should be considered.
Prediction
Both teams are evenly matched in defensive turnovers produced, which they both do around 10% of the time. The 49ers score on 41% of possessions and the Eagles 43%. But, and this is a big “But”, the 49ers only allow scoring on 26% of possessions, so that gives them the edge.
Prediction: 49ers win 27-24
Cincinnati vs. Kansas City
Reasons Cincinnati Wins
To focus on stats first, Cincinnati has an advantage in two major stat categories: Offensive penalties and Defensive turnovers. The Bengals are the second least penalized offense in the league. That translates to the Bengals playing pretty impressive mistake-free football on offense. They are also 9th in the league on causing turnovers, which they do on 13% of their possessions.
The feel-good story is that the Bengals have never won a Super Bowl and have lived in disappointment for decades (much like the chiefs did for 40+ years). Now they have a franchise QB that excites the fans and are never out of any game. For me, on top of all that, I lived in Cincinnati for 10 years myself. My friends, former colleagues and even my wife are Cincinnati natives and fans. So, if the Bengals win, like last year, I will be very happy for them.
Reasons Kansas City Wins
If we’re talking about stats, Mahomes leads the league in most QB stat categories. But since I don’t pick games based on one position, here’s the team stats I’m focused on. The Chiefs have a distinct advantage in three major stats that I watch: Scoring margin, scoring percentage and defensive penalty yards. The Chiefs are 5th in the league in scoring margin and have beaten their opponents by a combined 127 points (Cincy at 103). They score on 46% of possessions, which is #1 in the NFL. And as much as people say their defense stinks, they are #11 in penalty yards, so they play it pretty clean.
For the biased point of view, the last five years have been amazing for me as a fan. Think of it this way, for 40 years, I never saw KC play for a chance to go to the Super Bowl and now I’ve seen it for the last 5 years straight. It used to be that no lead was big enough for the Chiefs and now I never (hardly ever…) feel like they are out of any game. I’m excited to see them go to another Super Bowl.
Prediction
The Bengals and Chiefs have the same ability to turn the ball over on offense, around 9-10% of the time. Their defenses both allow scoring on 35-36% of the time as well. It’s all pretty even. Where they differ is the amount of times they score. The Chiefs score on 46% of possessions vs. the Bengals 41%. Prediction: Chiefs win 30-27
Final Biased Look
My second choice for the benefit of my Cincinnati friends would be a Cincinnati-Philly Super Bowl or really any Super Bowl where my friends and family could enjoy a Super Bowl of their own. But like I said earlier, I’m not that interested in another Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl, though I feel that’s what we are likely to see. As a Chiefs fan, I honestly would like to see a Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl. I’ll take the 49ers re-match, of course.
At the beginning of the year, I predicted a Bengals-Eagles Super Bowl with the Eagles winning, so my bias in that happening would be that my prediction methods would have ultimately worked. I would definitely also be happy about that!
Here’s hoping you enjoy the great games that will take place today and we’ll see what the outcome is. Please feel free to pass this along to someone who you think will enjoy it. I definitely write for my own enjoyment and a few of you that seem to enjoy my take on things. Please feel free to share this with as many people as you want, I would love to share with a wider audience on my limited time schedule. Thanks for reading and sharing your feedback along the way.